Long term forecasts, actually called outlooks to emphasize that these predictions target average conditions over longer periods of time and a fairly wide areas, have come a long way since I was a young TV meteorologist.
Because we now know about El Niño/La Niña, a big sloshing of pressure systems spanning the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean and other oscillations of atmospheric pressure medium to long term forecasting has become more of a science and much less of a guess.
Other such sloshings are the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a tropical rain system pattern, Antarctic Oscillation, the Arctic oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the pacific-North America Pattern
along with a knowledge of blocking, patterns that persist for a long time have enabled the meteorological/climatological community to develop better long-term outlooks.
Remember that these outlooks talk about average conditions and not specific events so a period with an outlook for a dry, hot summer there can be a cool, wet week or two.
The video covers the latest outlook.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Tornadoes Without Hook Echoes
Take a look at the first 5 radar images below. They are from the EF3 tornadoes that struck the FOX19 viewing area 2 March 2012. The top image is from the Crittenden-Piner-Fiskburg-Morning View tornado, the second is from the Peach Grove-Moscow-Hamersville tornado and the third and fourth are from the Holton, IN tornado.
Notice how well defined the hooks are, indicating a rotating updraft and a mesocyclone in the top two images. Oh the other hand a hook appears to be absent for the Holton, In tornado. The fourth image is for approximately the same time but with the radar dish tilted up to the next higher angle. The hook echo is obvious but not as well defined as the hooks for the "Piner" and "Moscow" tornadoes.
Spectrum width is a measure of the magnitude of the variation of movement of the targets. Lots of variation means high wind speeds, turbulence and big changes of wind direction and speed in a small space just like you find in a tornado.
The tornado stands out in the spectrum width image.
The lesson is that here 3 EF3s touched down. The evidence for a tornado was not obvious in the Holton, IN tornado with the lack of a visible or well defined hook. At a higher antenna elevation the hook is visible and using spectrum width the tornado can be easily seen. .
Now take a look at the Berlin, KY EF0 radar images. The black dot northwest of Brooksville is Berlin.
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| Crittenden-Piner-Fiskburg-Morning View Tornado Hook Echo and debris ball 4:26:57 PM Friday March 2, 2012 |
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| Peach Grove, KY-Moscow, OH-Hamersville, OH Tornado Hook Echo 4:37 PM Friday March 2, 22012 |
Notice how well defined the hooks are, indicating a rotating updraft and a mesocyclone in the top two images. Oh the other hand a hook appears to be absent for the Holton, In tornado. The fourth image is for approximately the same time but with the radar dish tilted up to the next higher angle. The hook echo is obvious but not as well defined as the hooks for the "Piner" and "Moscow" tornadoes.
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| Holton, IN Tornado KIND radar reflectivity, lowest scan with no apparent hook echo 3:52:50 PM EST March 2, 2012 |
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| Holton, IN Tornado KIND radar reflectivity, 2nd scan up scan with a small hook echo 3:52:50 PM EST March 2, 2012 |
Spectrum width is a measure of the magnitude of the variation of movement of the targets. Lots of variation means high wind speeds, turbulence and big changes of wind direction and speed in a small space just like you find in a tornado.
The tornado stands out in the spectrum width image.
The lesson is that here 3 EF3s touched down. The evidence for a tornado was not obvious in the Holton, IN tornado with the lack of a visible or well defined hook. At a higher antenna elevation the hook is visible and using spectrum width the tornado can be easily seen. .
Now take a look at the Berlin, KY EF0 radar images. The black dot northwest of Brooksville is Berlin.
Not a hint of a hook echo and below where the red and green come together in a line a typical signature of outflow or the leading edge of a line of thunderstorms. In this case a flanking line off the super cell to the north.
Notice the dark green around Berlin and indication of stronger winds. but green colors indicate winds heading towards the radar to the north or air flowing into the thunderstorm. Red indicates outflow from the line of thunderstorms. Neither the reflectivity or the velocity display have an easily detectable indicator of a tornado. Look below.
The spectrum width display, similar to a display of turbulence but indicating variation in wind speed and direction along the line. Just north of Berlin a black spot indication too much variation to measure and the location of a small tornado.
The Berlin, KY tornado, an EF0, was a different type of tornado than the EF3s which were mesocyclone tornadoes.
Berlin, KY was a leading edge tornado. Leading edge tornadoes are difficult to detect because almost all leading edge vorticies are weak, small and are usually around for only a minute or two, maybe less. They form from air that gains spin outside the thunderstorm. The rotating air is pulled into the thunderstorm and tilted to nearly vertical and can cause a small tornado.
There is mounting evidence from Doppler on Wheels investigations that many large tornadoes may be caused by continual importation of rotation which is tilted to the vertical and stretched by the updraft. Stretching a rotating "tube" of air has the same effect as an ice skater pulling his or her arms towards the body, the rotation is concentrated in a smaller area and the rotation rate increases. When the tube is stretched the diameter shrinks and the rotation rate increases.
Take a look at the images I have produced to explain the importation of rotation:
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| Development of horizontal rotation from vertical wind shear |
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| Rotation caused by vertical wind shear increases as air streams towards the thunderstorm through the environment with large vertical shear values. |
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| Large view of rotation being imported into a thunderstorm. Rotation can be imported over a large area. |
When the rotating tubes of air are tilted to the vertical by the thunderstorm updraft and stretched vertically they can spin up enough to cause a leading edge tornado.
Leading edge tornadoes only live a very short time and the radar signatures are weak so they are much harder to warn for than a mesocyclone tornado.
These rotation elements can become an significant source to maintain large tornadoes as the super cell travels across the landscape.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
It Has Been A While
The chaos that ensues with the touchdown of a major tornado or three of them in the case of March 2, 2012 is a heartbreaking testament to the power of Nature. Chaos pretty much says it all, nearly total disorder and the end of daily routines until lives and homes can be rebuilt.
That chaos ripples down to the weather office. Unlike the victims of the storms, for us of course, it is a matter of a minor inconvenience and catching up with tasks put off for storm coverage. This is one of those tasks.
EF3, 4 and 5 tornadoes are classified as major tornadoes. There were three EF3s in the Cincinnati tristate region, 2 - EF2s, 2 - EF1s and 5 - EF0s for a total of 12.
High resolution Doppler radars like the TDWR (Terminal Doppler Weather Radar) often incorrectly called - Turbulence Detecting Doppler Radar - were located near major airports to detect wind shear, wind shifts and turbulence so aircraft can avoid the dangers associated with these on takeoff and landing. There is a TDWR in Kenton County south of CVG.
Here is what TCVG (the TDWR for CVG) saw at 4:29 PM Friday 2March2012.
That chaos ripples down to the weather office. Unlike the victims of the storms, for us of course, it is a matter of a minor inconvenience and catching up with tasks put off for storm coverage. This is one of those tasks.
EF3, 4 and 5 tornadoes are classified as major tornadoes. There were three EF3s in the Cincinnati tristate region, 2 - EF2s, 2 - EF1s and 5 - EF0s for a total of 12.
High resolution Doppler radars like the TDWR (Terminal Doppler Weather Radar) often incorrectly called - Turbulence Detecting Doppler Radar - were located near major airports to detect wind shear, wind shifts and turbulence so aircraft can avoid the dangers associated with these on takeoff and landing. There is a TDWR in Kenton County south of CVG.
Here is what TCVG (the TDWR for CVG) saw at 4:29 PM Friday 2March2012.
The well defined hook echo is attenuated by heavy rain at the radar site (big black dot north of Piner) so instead of showing up as a bright yellow and red hook it curls around in shades of green to a distinct yellow "ball" we call a debris ball. Just what is a debris ball? It is parts of houses, trees, peoples memories and prized possesions abducted and pirated away by the 160 mph winds of the EF3 Crittenden-Piner-Fiskburg-Morning View tornado.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
More On Severe Weather
What you see is the Day 2 Convective Outlook issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. It states that the FOX19 viewing area is under a moderate risk of severe weather for Friday (03.02.2012). This means severe weather will likely be widespread and some of the storms could be quite strong with a chance for a major tornado or two.
A severe thunderstorm must have at least one of: hail >= 1" in diameter, winds of 58 mph or higher and a tornado.
The tables below summarize the categories Slight Risk, Moderate Risk and High Risk as defined by the Storm Prediction Center and are courtesy of SPC.


As you can see the Day 2 Convective Outlook defines a Moderate Risk as a 45% - 59% chance of of Tornadoes, Wind or Hail, any or all could occur.
The video has more on the forecast for Friday March 2, 2012.
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