The End of a La Niña January

The preliminary numbers are in and lust like any well behaved  La Niña january this one was warmer than normal and wet. The average high temp 5.4°F warmer than normal, the average low 3.5° warmer than normal and the month 4.9° warmer than normal. 

It was also a wet month with 2.29" or rain more than normal and snowfall 4-9" less than normal.

As I write this the rain has started. Is this going to be a record setting deluge?  No way. The video explains.

Just Another Southern Storm

A storm this evening developing over Texas will once again bring Gulf of Mexico moisture northward, lift it up and over cold air at the surface and the resulting rain will fall through cold air at the surface. But this time the cold air is not as cold as the air was this past weekend. So the difference is this time we get chilly rain, last time it was ice.

The video below explains the forecast.

Active Weather Ahead

There is plenty going on at jet stream level. The first effect on the Cincinnati Tristate will be some light snow tomorrow as an Alberta Clipper with little moisture comes our way. Temperatures during the afternoon will be at or above freezing and it looks like a wet system.

Behind this system will come a surge of moisture as a low develops over the southern Great Plains. With some cold air in place this could bring some ice to parts of the Tristate.

The video explains the forecast for this particular situation but also gives a general view of the conditions conducive to freezing rain and sleet.

The Weekend and Beyond Part 2.

In my last post we looked at an upper level disturbance coming out of Asia that is crossing the north Pacific which will bring rain here on Wednesday 01.11.2012.

The most recent model runs now have a strong clipper type upper disturbance forming over western Alaska that will follow the first one and work with it. The result will be a quick shot of cold air after the main storm.

The video explains it.

The Weekend and Beyond

Tweaking is by definition a fine adjustment.  In forecasting we often have the large scale pattern and weather dead on but when you look at the small scale details, the distribution of rainfall from a storm for example, we have to adjust or tweak the forecast to allow for variations within the storm.

The video below explains how we forecast what will happen a week out.  This was a forecast I made on 01.04.2012 for Wednesday 01.11.2012. Eventhough it was for a specific period of time it illustrates what a meteorologist looks at to forecast for a week in the future.

Lake Effect Snow

Right in time for the New Year (2012 - for those of you reading this in the distant future) an arctic air outbreak brought snow showers to the Cincinnati Tristate area.  The snow was not purely lake effect but often in winter Cincinnati receives snow courtesy of far away Lake Michigan.

The video explains it.