The Next Storm Brings Rain

Extended  range forecasting has come a long way since I started in the weather business. In 2012 we are easily more accurate 7 days out than we were 3 days out in 1977. 

We still cannot accurately time the start of end of a snow event a week away. Commonly it may arrive  a day earlier or a day later than a particular model run predicts.

The job of a meteorologist in extended forecasting is to let you in to our thought processes, let you know "something" may happen on a particular day then update the progress of the forecast as the storm gets closer.  The goal is no surprises. 

For example I was asked today by an elementary school child if there will be any snow days this year. Coincidentally the models are kicking out information on what could be a big storm in the U.S. Wednesday through Friday of next week, that is 8 to 10 days in the future.  Only a fool would emphatically pronounce a prediction of a big snow storm starting any of those days.  But i could tell her it would rain Thursday with no chance of a snow day and next week there is a chance.  Stand by.

There are three things in general that determine if a storm will bring snow or if it will bring rain.

Now don't get me wrong it is much more complex than that once the storm is a few hours away but in general for the extended forecast three things dominate my thinking. I cover them in the video.