The Basics of Snow Forecasting

Here is a short video that explains some of what we look at in forecasting snow.

Time To Update The Winter Forecast

The video explains the latest forecast from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.

Rain, Rain Go Away!

With 6 weeks left in 2011 we are nearing the wettest year ever in Cincinnati. I don't mean the wettest "official" year I mean the wettest for as far back as weather records go for this area.

Official records began Nov. 1, 1870 so the first full year of official rainfall data is 1871.  But in Cincinnati fragmentary weather records go way back, all the way to the late 1780s at Fort Washington.

A nearly continuous set of daily weather observations begain on Jan. 1, 1814 when, in the wake of the War of 1812, Issac Jackson closed his mercantile business in New York City and moved west to start a farm and The Farmer's College in what is now College Hill.

With gaps in Jackson's records filled in by weather observations made at the Newport Barracks, the successor to Fort Washington when Fort Washington was crowded out by the rapid growth of Cincinnati, and by Smithsonian observers at Woodward High School we know about almost every day's weather back to 1814.

Click this Link for a larger version of the graph.

Monthly and yearly rainfall totals go back to 1835. They may go back farther but no older reliable rainfall records have been found in the archives.

So starting in 1835 when the final total for 2011 is reported we will have 177 years of rainfall records.

The wettest of those 177 years was 1847 with a remarkable total of 65.18" of rain. Right behind it is 2011 with another amazing total so far of 62.37" through November 15.

For years weather researchers have doubted the 1847 total but that year on December 9th and 10th the north fork of the Licking River was as much as 10 feet higher than ever known and that month the Ohio River cested close to 62' in Cincinnati. These events lend credibility to the measurement of 65.18" of rain in 1847.

With 1.5 months to go 2011 could well surpass 1847 as th wettest year of all.

Cincinnati 5 Wettest Years

1847	65.18"
2011	62.37"
1990	57.58"
1850	54.76"
1852	54.06"

Cincinnati 5 Driest Years

1901	17.99"
1934	22.76"
1856	22.85"
1930	24.49"
1908	27.29"

Snow Falling at 43°! What's Up?

The key to this is that ice can only form where the temperature is below freezing.
In case you are wondering the wind chill cannot make water freeze if the temperature is above freezing. Wind chill only tells you how fast something will lose heat and cool to air temperature.

The snow flakes formed high in the atmosphere with sub-freezing temperatures.  The freezing level this afternoon was at most only 2500' up. So if a flake could stay frozen as fell to the ground you saw snow. Most of the flakes melted to rain drops.

Check out the video for more.

WEEKEND WARM UP!

The video explains what I am looking at Inside The Forecast

Any Snow Yet?

It is that time of year!  No matter what we say we are thinking about in the back of your mind a nearly silent synapse is flickering, keeping alive a faint haunting image - snow, inches deep all over the ground.

Snow does make life a bit strenuous and I am willing to bet most who read this would rather it not get here. I am willing to admit I am not one of those I say Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!

So is a fluffy blanket, a slushy mush or a fort fabricator's fiesta just ahead.   No, not yet!  The video explains.

Where Oh Where Is The Arctic Air?