TV meteorologists are always yapping about "THE JET STREAM". Jet stream systems are not as simple as a river of air like most meteorologists call them. Another often used description is a "current" of air like an ocean current.
Embedded within the jet are "upper level disturbances" - the real weather makers. Some meteorologists go on and on about vorticity, or spin in the atmosphere. Vorticity does nothing, but it tells us where the energy to lift the air is and where clouds and rain are likely to form.
The graphic above shows those bundles of energy in the jet stream in yellow and red. As you can see the pattern is complicated. And generally when a red area passes over you there is upward motion and IF there is enough moisture clouds and rain develop.
No bundles of energy move into the tristate until Monday, but on Monday the air is very dry still so I do not have rain in the forecast until Tuesday night and Wednesday and then it is a chance.
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